Poles who supported Ukraine from the start of the war change their minds

Majority of Poles think Ukraine should make concessions to Russia

55% of Poles believe that the war in Ukraine should be stopped, even if Ukraine has to give up part of its territory or independence, according to the latest CBOS poll.

 This means that for the first time since the start of the war, the prevailing attitude in Polish society is that the first priority should be to end the conflict and make peace. In September this year, 39% of respondents were of this opinion, and 26% in April 2022.

31% of respondents, i.e. less than one in three Poles, now believe that the struggle should continue without making any concessions to Russia (compared to 46% in September this year and 59% in April 2022). 14% of respondents currently have no opinion on this issue^[1].

Even former optimists are giving up the idea of victory on the battlefield?

The poll study notes that at various stages of the war, the belief among Poles has always been that the Ukrainians (with Western support) should continue fighting and not make any concessions to Russia. However, since the beginning of the second year of the war, this percentage has been steadily declining, and in the last three months, it has fallen by several percentage points.

It was specified that Poles in the 18-24 age group, inhabitants of the smallest towns, the less educated, those with poor material conditions, and religious and right-wing views are more likely to support peace negotiations^[2].

CBOS noted that voters of the right-wing opposition parties, particularly the Confederation of Freedom and Independence and Law and Justice, supported the idea of ending the war. On the other hand, voters of the Civic Coalition and the Third Way are quite divided on this issue.

The survey was conducted between 28 November and 8 December 2024 on a 915 sample.

Skeptical sentiment in Kyiv on the loss of territories

The Polish position is partly reflected in the message Kyiv sent. In an interview with the French newspaper Le Parisien, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that, at least for the time being, Ukraine would be unable to regain Crimea and the Donbas.

"These territories are now under de facto Russian control. We do not have the power to take them back. We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community", the Ukrainian leader admitted.

In the past, Zelensky also said that Ukraine could not regain Crimea through military means. He said that the republic does not have sufficient forces to do so.

At the beginning of December, the President complained about the lack of forces in the Ukrainian army. He stressed that Kyiv must seek a diplomatic solution.

The war will continue anyway because there is no shortage of people willing to fight?

The assassination in Moscow of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defence Forces, and his assistant Ilya Polikarpov was organized by the Ukrainian special services. This is the opinion of most experts, politicians, and the media.

According to the investigation, Kirillov and his assistant were killed on the morning of 17 December when an improvised explosive device (IED) attached to a scooter exploded in front of a house on Ryazanskiy Prospekt. The Investigative Committee opened a criminal case under several articles - murder, terrorist attack and illegal arms trafficking. Even though Mikhail Podoliak, advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, has denied Kyiv's involvement in the murder of the General, there are fewer and fewer doubts that the explosion was the work of the Ukrainian special services. Reuters also reported, citing sources, that Kirillov was killed in an operation by the Ukrainian security services^[3].

It is believed that Kirillov may have been killed because of his persistent criticism of Ukraine's use of chemical weapons, because of the presence of troops under his command in the war zone, or because of his desire to disrupt the start of a dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv on a settlement of the conflict. This perspective has been discussed in the United States, Europe and even Russia since Donald Trump's election as American President.

Many Russian politicians reacted to the explosion by declaring that there can now be no dialogue with Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, Vice-President of the Russian Security Council, said that the organisers of the terrorist attack, "including the top military and political leadership of a country that no longer exists, will face inevitable retribution". State Duma Speaker Viacheslav Volodin made a similar point, saying that "the criminal essence of the Kiev regime is obvious" and "all those responsible must be punished".

"The organizers and perpetrators will be found and punished, whoever they are and wherever they are," assured Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma's defense committee.

On the eve of the attack, Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, without ruling out the possibility of negotiations, stressed at the UN Security Council meeting on the situation in Ukraine that no freezing of the conflict would suit Russia. He assured that Russia would not allow NATO to be involved in the Ukrainian crisis (as Kyiv is demanding) and that the new US leadership must negotiate with Moscow on this issue.

There are also many supporters of continued hostilities in Kyiv. With the military support of European countries, they hope to take revenge on Russia in 2025. This was the position of Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, on 17 December. He clarified that Kyiv is ready to fight and stressed that real negotiations on sustainable peace are only possible if Russia's resources are exhausted to continue hostilities. Mr Yermak assured that the strong help the strong and Ukraine must remain strong and continue to work actively with its international partners. Yermak was supported by Dmytro Kuleba, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, now safely based in the USA.

"There are doubts about the possibility of achieving peace in Ukraine under the new US President Trump, especially given the deep divisions with Russia and Ukraine's vulnerability without NATO support," he said. - Europe will not be able to leave Ukraine unaided, as the country's collapse threatens the security of the entire continent."

The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), formed in Europe, is ready to support Ukraine until the beginning of 2025, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Norwegian Prime Minister Jon Gahr Støre announced on 17 December. They stressed the need to assist Kyiv through the JEF and close cooperation with NATO. The Norwegian Prime Minister said his country would provide €240 million to strengthen Ukraine's naval forces.

"Kyiv needs additional support to deter the Russian navy in the Black Sea," the Norwegian PM tried to justify the millions of euros in expenditure.