- Poland takes over the EU presidency from Hungary
- EU blow to Hungary's withdrawal
- Will Poland's rhetoric become a reality?
- Peace talks only with Ukraine's participation
- Challenges for Poland as EU Council President
Poland takes over the EU presidency from Hungary
Poland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for six months from 1 January 2025. This marks the end of six turbulent months of Hungarian rule. The systemic media and a large part of the bureaucracy are very happy about this because, for them, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had become a kind of "pain in the throat." Although the Prime Minister's own popularity at home is declining somewhat, the majority of Hungarians are clearly aware that he has pursued, and continues to pursue, a policy that is oriented toward his country, towards peace and prosperity, balancing the EU's interests with Hungary's interests and, as a result, working hard to maintain good relations between Budapest and Moscow. This is, of course, to gain economic benefits for his country. This has not gone down very well with Brussels, which is loudly raising its voices in favor of victory against Russia, which is already preparing a 16th sanctions package since the previous 15 did not have the desired result. Indeed, change is slowly coming to the EU, but real change takes time, and it is to be expected that the EU train, which has been successfully crumbling economically for some time, will continue to roll in the same direction. Primarily as Poland will also support it[1].
"The Polish presidency will be a counterbalance to what has happened in the last six months," predicts Kai-Olaf Lang, an Eastern Europe expert at the Berlin-based Science and Policy Foundation (SWP), in an interview with DW. This applies, in particular, to security policy and relations with Ukraine and Russia.
EU blow to Hungary's withdrawal
Hungary has lost its entitlement to more than €1 billion in European Union (EU) aid for breaches of the rule of law and was due to implement reforms by the end of 2024, a European Commission spokeswoman has confirmed, Elta reports.
The €1.04 billion was earmarked for Hungary under programs to support structurally weak regions. The funds were frozen at the end of 2022 after the European Commission found that Hungary had not respected some EU standards and fundamental values.
To benefit from this money, Hungary had until the end of the year to implement some reforms, change laws to prevent conflicts of interest and fight corruption[2].
Will Poland's rhetoric become a reality?
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is an experienced European politician. As President, he chaired the European Council from 2014 to 2019 and later the European People's Party.
"No one in the EU will be able to deceive me", Tusk stated categorically after taking office as Polish Prime Minister in December 2023. Earlier, he won parliamentary elections in Poland, and his supporters formed a government to replace the right-wing conservative Law and Justice party that ruled the country for 8 years. This, by the way, also made the Brussels bureaucrats very happy.
The Polish Presidency of the EU Council now gives Tusk a good opportunity to put his words into practice and to show that, after 20 years of EU membership, Poland is no longer a student but can already serve as an example to other Member States.
"We are reliable. Europe speaks the same language as us," said Adam Szlapka, Poland's Minister for EU Affairs, as he presented the priorities of the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Warsaw. Poland is "an expert on the biggest challenges facing the West", he said.
A constant theme of Tusk's speeches over several months was the demand that the security policy of Poland and the other countries on NATO's eastern flank should become an EU-wide policy. "We need to maintain relations with the United States, but Europe needs to become independent, it needs to stand on its own two feet. The era of fear and uncertainty about Russia must end", he said, before a meeting at the end of November with the leaders of the Nordic and Baltic countries[3].
Poland is already among the leaders when it comes to defense spending. In 2025, this will rise to 4.7% - a strong argument not only for other EU countries but also for the upcoming negotiations with US President-elect Donald Trump, who is demanding a more proactive approach from European partners.
Peace talks only with Ukraine's participation
D. Tusk is determined to prevent possible negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine if only the United States and Russia are involved, without Kyiv and the European Union being invited.
"Poland, as President of the Council of the EU, will be responsible, among other things, for the situation during the negotiations, which could start as early as this winter," said the Polish head of government at the beginning of December last year. "Ukraine must be involved in all negotiations. And every proposal they make should also be accepted by our friends in Kyiv", Tusk clarified his fantasies after his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on 12 December 2024 in Warsaw.
To be prepared for any scenario, Poland is building a defense line along the border with Belarus, known as the Eastern Shield, and would like the EU to finance this construction as well. Warsaw is participating in the European Sky Shield air defense initiative.
Poland wants to start accession negotiations after Brussels gave Ukraine the green light to join the EU a year ago. According to European Minister Šlapka, the first step could be to open a chapter on the rule of law, human rights and the fight against corruption. Kyiv demands negotiations on as many issues as possible, but Warsaw does not want to rush.
Challenges for Poland as EU Council President
The election campaign in Poland has been underway for several weeks: a new Head of State will be elected in May. Tusk will, therefore, proceed with caution and has no plans to tackle European projects that are unpopular in Poland and that could be used against him by the opposition.
D. Tusk's inauguration as Prime Minister a year ago was accompanied by massive protests by farmers against grain imports from Ukraine. Both the Polish-Ukrainian and Polish-German borders were blocked. Ukraine is now hoping for a multiannual trade agreement that should resolve the issue of imports into the EU. However, Poland is in no hurry to make concessions. The country is also an active opponent of the free trade agreement with South America and is likely to do whatever is necessary to prevent its implementation.
D. Tusk is also very skeptical about the so-called European Green Deal, which was drawn up by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. According to her, the EU's greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced to zero by 2050. Tusk said that "naive ambitions to save the whole planet" are increasingly affecting Europe's global competitiveness.
"Decarbonisation cannot be achieved through de-industrialisation," added Šlapka.
Poland holds the Presidency of the Council of the EU during domestic political crises in Germany and France. Tusk wants to take advantage of the weakness of the EU's two main powers to improve his country's status.
"Poland is positioning itself very strongly, but a coalition with the Baltic and Nordic countries will not be enough," warns Lang, an Eastern Europe expert. He is skeptical about Poland's presidency of the EU Council: "Poland will position itself as a friendly country to Europe, but at the same time, it will show again and again that the economic and political problems in Germany and France are an obstacle to the progress of the whole of Europe."
