- Russia would seek to create a unified buffer zone
- The Suvalki Corridor would be a key target in an attack on the Baltic States
- Poland is strengthening its defenses in response to the Russian threat
- The threat of war in Europe is prompting increased preparedness among all NATO countries
Russia would seek to create a unified buffer zone
The Finnish media portal Iltalehti, citing NATO sources, has detailed possible Russian actions against the Baltic States, Finland and Norway. This analysis shows the seriousness of the situation, as it also highlights the record of the Finnish defense report. Moreover, the ideas expressed together reveal the scale of the possible threats and NATO's readiness to counter possible aggression[1].
Information from NATO sources reveals that Russia is said to be preparing for a large-scale offensive involving several army corps groups. According to experts, the way the war in Ukraine is going, the Kremlin is prepared to take significant risks and ignore losses. Sources say:
"In 2017, Russia practiced attacking Norway, Finland, and the Baltic States during the Zapad exercise. The Russians have not abandoned their offensive plan but want to implement it after the war in Ukraine. To our knowledge, the plan still exists and the Russians have not abandoned their desire to implement it."
In the north, the 14th Army Corps would conduct operations toward Murmansk to attack the Norwegian coast by land, sea, and air. At the same time, paratroopers would be deployed in Finnish Lapland to seize strategic points such as Ivalo airport quickly.
Southern Finland would also be one of the targets of the Russian offensive. A missile force deployed on the Kula peninsula could strike Helsinki and other vital facilities.
NATO sources say that Russia's main objective in Finland is not a deep territorial incursion but the seizure of the south-eastern part of Finland and the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia. Such a tactic would complicate Finnish support for Estonia and create a buffer zone between Russia and NATO stretching from the Arctic region through the Baltic and Black Seas to the Mediterranean.
The Suvalki Corridor would be a key target in an attack on the Baltic States
Finnish media report that Russia's attack plans also include the Baltic countries, which would also be hit by massive armored vehicles, artillery, and missile attacks. According to NATO sources, the Russians would attack Lithuania via Belarus.
Here, perhaps the most important objective is to seize the Suvalki corridor linking the Kaliningrad region with Belarus. Control of this corridor would isolate the Baltic countries from the rest of NATO territory, leaving NATO allies with very limited options to provide military support to Estonia, Latvia and, of course, Lithuania.
The capitals of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius - would also be prime targets for attack.
The Kaliningrad forces and the Russian Baltic Fleet could mount additional operations. For example, Russian troops could organize the seizure of the island of Gotland, thus making it even more difficult for NATO to maintain its land forces in the Baltic region[2].
It should not be forgotten that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his annual speech on 19 December, stressed that Russia has "the strength and means to restore all its historical territories". These statements are based on the Russian leader's ambition to restore the borders of the 18th-century Russian Empire. NATO sources warn that Putin's rhetoric should be taken seriously as it reflects real strategic plans that could be implemented in the next few years.
Poland is strengthening its defenses in response to the Russian threat
And while the Finnish media is talking about a possible Russian-led attack on Lithuania and its neighbors, Poland is taking active measures to strengthen its defense capabilities. In addition to arming itself, Poland is also taking various other strategic actions in response to the increased threat from Russia.
In 2025, Poland will start building a road that will allow the rapid redeployment of troops and security forces to the border with the Kaliningrad region. According to Maciej Duszczyk, Poland's Deputy Interior Minister, this project is one of the strategic measures to help ensure the security of Poland's and NATO's eastern flank.
The construction of this road is just one of the measures that Poland has taken recently. In November, the country started to build defensive fortifications along the border with the Kaliningrad region. The first project - installing more than 3,500 concrete "passages" near the village of Dombrovka - was completed in a few weeks. These fortifications are designed to hinder the possible movement of Russian troops into Polish territory.
Poland also plans to set up an active surveillance system along the border with Russia. This system will allow the border situation to be constantly monitored and any incidents quickly responded to. Poland's actions clearly reflect the growing security concerns on NATO's eastern flank, especially in light of Russia's actions in Ukraine and the talk of possible aggression in the Baltic region.
The threat of war in Europe is prompting increased preparedness among all NATO countries
However, it should be stressed that Russia is not only practicing various plans. For example, last March, the NATO Defence Alliance carried out an exercise that initiated the redeployment of 20,000 troops to Northern Norway and Finnish Lapland. American Vice-Admiral Douglas Perry, Commander of NATO Northern Command Norfolk led the Nordic response exercise.
According to Perry, the NATO exercises are intended not only to alert the public to potential threats but also to send a strong signal to the Kremlin. It is intended to show that NATO members are capable of large-scale operations if Russia decides to move in.
As the Finnish defense leadership says, "The ability to rapidly engage distant targets is a key part of deterrence and defense." NATO stresses that Russia would not be allowed to achieve its objectives and that such an attack would ultimately defeat them.
Despite the preparations, NATO is nevertheless aware that the Russian military leadership may take a risky step, even if it means heavy losses and hundreds of thousands of Russian dead. A NATO source stressed that "human life has no value for them". The Finnish report also said:
"Russia is reinforcing its military presence and activities in a north-westerly direction in all operational environments as quickly as possible."
Russia's aggressive rhetoric and war preparations have been a cause of concern across Europe for some time. The countries' efforts to strengthen their defense capabilities, increase defense funding, and other steps show that they want to be prepared for a possible conflict. At the same time, however, it must be borne in mind that a possible war is not inevitable and that the current talk, if the situation is properly managed, may remain just that - talk.
