Airplane flights: what are the chances of dying in a plane crash?

Planes are one of the safest ways to travel, with a 1 in 11 million chance of dying in an air crash

Air travel is often considered one of the safest forms of transport in the world. Although many people still fear the possibility of an accident, flights are much safer than other everyday means of transport, such as cars.

Statistics from international organizations, including the International Air Transport Association (IATA), support this. However, aviation is not immune to mistakes like every other transport sector, and accidents still happen even in the 21st century^[1]. So, how realistic is it to die in an aviation accident, and what do we need to know about the safety of this mode of transport?

Compared to other means of transport, planes are one of the safest forms of travel. According to IATA reports, 2023 was the year when new records were set for air transport safety. Last year, as many as 37 million flights were flown - 17% more than in 2022. Despite this growth, statistics show that the number of plane crashes and fatalities in 2023 was the lowest in history.

According to IATA, by 2023, aviation will have reached a level of safety where a person would have to travel by air every day for an average of 103,239 years to have a fatal accident.

This sounds almost unbelievable, but these figures are based on the airline industry's constant inspections and strict security procedures. It is true that, while the vast majority of flights are successful, aviation still faces several challenges that can lead to accidents, and the chances of being involved in an aviation accident are not reduced to zero.

The chance of being involved in a plane crash is about 1 in 11 million. This is significantly lower than most everyday activities, including driving, and has made airplanes a very safe transport industry over a long period. According to 2024 data, only 0.07 deaths occur for every billion passenger miles - a measurably lower rate than other modes of transport.

Every flight must meet very high safety standards, but as in any other activity, the human factor remains one of the main causes of accidents. Technical failures, weather conditions, and even terrorist attacks can also impact travel safety^[2].

Airplane safety statistics are incomparably ahead of cars

IATA provides statistics illustrating how aviation is a safety leader compared to other transport sectors. For example, the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that there are around 50 million incidents a year on the world's roads and around 1.3 million road deaths yearly. Compared to these figures, airplanes seem to be not only a safe but also a very reliable option.

There are around 30-40 incidents in commercial aviation each year, but only 1-2 of them are tragic.

Although air travel involves some risks, these risks are much lower than for other modes of transport. Of course, this is independent of the countries that operate the flights, as all of them comply with international safety standards.

In contrast to flying, traveling by car exposes you to much higher risks daily. Although driving has become an integral part of everyday life, many fatal accidents or journeys resulting in serious injuries occur regularly. Road accidents are frequent and kill millions of people worldwide every year^[3].

Most road accidents are caused by human error. The main factors that lead to accidents are driving in adverse weather conditions, excessive speed, driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, lack of attention due to the use of mobile phones, and other distractions. Drivers often disregard traffic rules and other safety measures, putting themselves and other road users at risk.

Another important aspect is the state of road infrastructure. Although the road network is well maintained in most countries, there are still areas where there is a lack of adequate lighting, road signs and good surfaces. Road surface defects, such as potholes, can be dangerous for drivers, especially in poor weather conditions. Insufficiently advanced infrastructure can also lead to higher accident rates.

Driver training and certification are also important factors. While many countries have strict requirements for driver testing, driving experience, and theory, a large proportion of drivers fail to meet safety standards or are not sufficiently trained to react quickly to unexpected events.

According to statistics, flying is significantly safer than driving. The road fatality rate is approximately 7.28 people for every billion miles (1.6 billion km). This means that about 7.28 people are killed for every billion miles traveled by car. In contrast, the death rate for aviation is only 0.07 per billion miles. This means that the chances of dying in a plane crash are much lower than dying in a road traffic accident.

Aviation is based on extremely strict rules

Aviation is one of the best-regulated industries in the world. Safety rules are set by global organisations such as the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). These organizations regulate all aircraft operations, from maintenance to pilot training^[4].

Every aircraft must be inspected and maintained regularly to ensure that it meets the highest safety standards. This includes regular checks for technical faults, replacement and renewal of aircraft parts, and other preventive actions.

Pilot training is also very strict. In addition to maintaining the required certificate, pilots undergo regular refresher courses to prepare for the unexpected. Pilots are also trained to handle a wide range of emergencies that may arise both in flight and in the event of an accident. As a result, pilots are prepared to react appropriately to any incident and ensure the safety of passengers.

Even in the 21st century, it is not possible to avoid aviation disasters

Aviation is improving every day. Since 2000, aircraft safety has increased significantly as new technological solutions have been introduced, regulations have changed, and aircraft manufacturers and airlines have invested in safety measures.

Modern aircraft are equipped with advanced technologies that ensure flight safety. For example, autopilots, weather radars and crash avoidance systems allow pilots to avoid adverse weather conditions and even reduce the likelihood of mistakes. Aircraft avionics systems (including flight management systems) and additional safety features, such as emergency landing systems and flame retardant technologies, are in place to minimize risk and maximize flight safety^[5].

Air Traffic Control (ATC) ensures planes do not collide in mid-air and are properly routed to safe air routes. Controllers monitor the entire airspace and provide continuous information on weather conditions, flight status and other vital data to help pilots make the right decisions. ATC also ensures that all flights are organized smoothly and safely, preventing potential accidents caused by mid-air collisions.

It must be stressed that passenger safety is a priority for all airlines. Every flight starts with a safety briefing to familiarise passengers with evacuation procedures and instructions on using oxygen masks and life jackets. Every flight attendant's or steward's action is also planned according to strict safety norms, allowing quick and efficient response to emergencies.

However, all these foreseeable safety steps and the latest safety developments do not change the fact that disasters can happen on any vehicle. Airplanes, while constantly facing new challenges, retain an extremely low probability of disaster and remain the safest form of travel.