A new star has emerged in Hungarian politics, and it's not Viktor Orban

Change is coming to Budapest?

For years, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's critics have been waiting for a man who could convincingly challenge his increasingly authoritarian rule in Hungary. Bloomberg writes that almost no one took Peter Magyar seriously.

The agency points out that Magyar, 43, is a former diplomat, a fierce supporter of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, and a member of the ruling Fidesz party. Magyar's ex-wife was Hungary's Justice Minister until last year, and his best friend was a key minister in Orbán's cabinet. Magyar himself was the head of a state-owned company, a position often filled by people with political connections^[1].

So when Magyar started to condemn the excesses of Orbán's 14-year term of office earlier this year, some people assumed that it was the Prime Minister himself who had taken such action to divert the disgruntled's attention in another direction. However, nowadays, few people think so.

Stunning achievements of a new political star

According to the latest polls, in less than 10 months, Magyar's new party, Tisza, has successfully shot up the popularity rankings, overtaking Orbán's Fidesz by 11%. No other Hungarian party has managed to do so in the last 18 years.

According to Magyar, his party is "growing" as frustration with the country's cost-of-living crisis grows and allegations of widespread corruption alienate the electorate from a prime minister who has so far appeared unassailable both inside and outside Hungary^[2].

"More and more people are beginning to believe that the ruling elite can be defeated. We are just getting started", declared Magyar.

V. Orbán's reversal of political fortunes at home contrasts with his victories abroad. His ally, US President-elect Donald Trump, is expected to return to the White House. In France, Marine Le Pen is consolidating her position after the overthrow of her government. Her party is the biggest force in the right-wing alliance "Patriots for Europe", which Orbán formed.

Although the national elections will not occur until 2026, campaigns are already in full swing. A few weeks after Magyar published a viral video interview in February, his affiliated political group received 13% of the vote. Three months later, Tisza already had 30% of the vote in the European Parliament elections, losing only to Fidesz. According to the latest poll, Tisza's rating has risen to 47% compared to 36% for the ruling Fidesz party.

"I have not seen anything like what Magyar has been able to do," said Endre Han, head of Median and one of the most experienced sociologists in Hungary.

"Tizsa enjoys the support of divided opposition parties, posing a threat to Orbán, who hoped to take advantage of the divisions in the opposition camp. Magyar even claims that his party has started to attract supporters of Orbán's ruling party^[3].

"I come from a right-wing family, I have always voted for Fidesz, so I know them and I know exactly the voters they have left behind", the politician said.

PM accused of neglecting domestic politics

"There is a perception within Fidesz that the Prime Minister is too concerned about foreign policy issues, which is why he has allowed an authoritative opposition to emerge.

When Hungary took over the EU presidency in July, Orbán unexpectedly took over the peacekeeping mission, causing a storm of discontent among EU and NATO allies as well as Kiev. In particular, he held a series of uncoordinated meetings with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

However, this has increased the profile of Orban, 61, who has become an icon of the far right for his anti-systemic and often pro-Russian rhetoric and his alleged political invincibility at home. Trump has even praised him for his tight control, calling him a "fantastic leader" and a "boss". However, while Orbán is active on the international stage, his Fidesz party continues to lose ground.

According to Magyar, Fidesz maintains its position only through the efforts of the state media apparatus.

 "It will be like the Truman Show", said Magyar, referring to the popular Jim Carrey film, in which he plays a character who is unaware of the fake world in which he lives. - As soon as people are confronted with reality, support for Fidesz will collapse."

However, in order to do so, Magyar will have to overcome many obstacles. Skeptics doubt whether he will maintain his momentum until the 2026 elections. Moreover, his actions are akin to a "one-man show": the Tisza leader has admitted that building a party that could field 106 candidates for the next parliamentary elections is difficult.

Moreover, Orban's reaction was not long in coming. Last Friday, he told state radio: "Brussels wants Hungary to have a government under their control... They want a change of government."

In addition, the Fidesz-dominated parliament is now discussing "redrawing the electoral map" to remove some opposition-dominated constituencies in Budapest.