Parliamentary elections in Canada: will the Trudeau government be replaced?

Canada faces an election: will the country stay true to the Liberals or take a conservative path?

2024 was an election year around the world. More voters went to the polls in different parts of the world than ever before in history, with national elections held in at least 64 countries and the European Union (EU), which together represent around 49% of the world's population.

From Russia to India and USA, millions of people have done their civic duty this year and, in many cases, contributed to changes in the way governments are run in their countries. Next year, other countries worldwide, such as Canada, will follow the same path^[1].

Canada's next federal elections are due to take place in October 2025 but could be held earlier. It is already clear that it will pose a serious challenge to the country's current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and his Liberal Party. After all, the current Canadian Prime Minister has been in power for almost a decade, so change seems inevitable.

Trudeau has recently faced criticism and rapidly growing unpopularity, fuelled by citizens' dissatisfaction with high inflation, the housing crisis, the carbon tax policy, and grievances over managing the COVID-19 pandemic.

And for Trudeau and his Liberals, the signs of worry are indeed huge: the latest polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, by double digits, and more than half of Canadians believe that Trudeau should resign now^[2].

Trudeau has been in power for almost a decade, but his popularity is waning

Historically, Canadian prime ministers have rarely stayed in power for long periods, and it is extremely rare for them to secure a fourth consecutive term in office. It is no secret that politicians who have been in power for a long time often find themselves in the public's disfavor because of one decision or another. This is also the case with Trudeau. 

Recently, members of his group have even called for his resignation, but there is no clear successor yet, which makes it difficult to replace the party leader and perhaps even to win the elections.

Meanwhile, with Poilievre, the Conservatives have gained momentum by appealing to people's economic frustration and presenting a roadmap for more coherent policies.

Despite this, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau announced last month that he will lead his Liberal Party in the next election and rejected a request from some of his party members not to run for a fourth term, with more than 20 of his party's lawmakers signing a letter asking them to resign before the next election.

Other ministers in Mr Trudeau's cabinet have said that he has the support of the vast majority of the 153 Liberal MPs in the House of Commons, but in the latest Nanos poll the Liberals trail the Conservatives by as much as 38% to 25%. In addition, the Liberals have recently suffered a setback in a special election for the seats of two ridings in Toronto and Montreal, which the party held^[3].

Election date not yet clear 

Federal elections in Canada could occur any time between this autumn and October next year. The Liberals, who do not have an absolute majority, will have to rely on the support of at least one major party in Parliament.

Representatives of the opposition Bloc Québécois have said that their party will work with the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP) to overthrow the Liberals and force an election if the government fails to raise pensions.

Yves-Francois Blanchet, leader of the separatist Francophone party, has even threatened to withdraw his support for the Trudeau government if the Prime Minister does not agree to support this bill. He warned that if his demands were not met, the Bloc would enter into negotiations with the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party, not only now but also for the upcoming elections.

However, Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, says that while the pressure on Trudeau is mounting, some disgruntled lawmakers have little power to force him to step down.

"Trudeau holds all the cards. It's up to him whether he wants to stay. The Liberal Party revised its rules in 2016 to protect the party leader from any challenge to his leadership as long as he is prime minister," said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto.

While the direction of the polls seems clear, the timing of the next vote remains unclear. Federal elections are currently scheduled for October 2025, but Trudeau's Liberals lead a minority government and opposition parties could join forces at any time to force an early election.

The current government could also be disrupted by a vote of no confidence, which would trigger a possible election campaign earlier. On the other hand, even if Trudeau survives another no-confidence vote, the need to approve a federal budget in April is at best a precondition for a spring election.

Citizens around the world want change: is it Canada's turn?

In this year's elections in India, South Africa, France, the United Kingdom previous leaders and parties have been dealt a blow. Voters everywhere seem to want change. Now it may be Canada's turn and Trudeau's turn too. 

After all, the Liberals won power in 2015 with a majority of seats in Parliament and were very popular, and in the 2019 elections, Trudeau and his party were left with a minority government, which they retained, even after the 2021 snap elections. 

However, in September, the polling company Angus Reid found that almost two-thirds of respondents across the country disapprove of Trudeau's performance as Prime Minister.

The latest polls show that the Conservative Party of Canada, now led by Poilievre, could win almost four times as many seats as the Liberals. Voters favor the Conservatives on jobs, the cost-of-living crisis, taxes, immigration, and crime. 

Some Liberal MPs have called for Trudeau to quit as Prime Minister and party leader and choose a new face before the next election, but polls do not suggest that the Liberal candidate who replaces him will perform much better.