- Germany’s embassy in Washington has formed crisis group
- America-first economic policy could wreak huge damage on the German export-driven economy
- Germany may need to reassess its political and strategic alignments
- Germany might seek to strengthen its ties with other global powers such as China and India
Germany’s embassy in Washington has formed crisis group
At the German foreign ministry, diplomats are scrambling to prepare for a scenario that many had long thought implausible: Donald Trump’s return to the White House, an event that could have incalculable consequences for Germany and its place in the world.
Officials from the ministry’s North America desk, its Policy Planning Staff, the office of the coordinator for transatlantic cooperation, and Germany’s embassy in Washington have formed a kind of informal crisis group to discuss what a Trump victory in November’s US presidential election would mean for Germany — and how Berlin should react.
The latest development on the group’s agenda: President Biden’s decision on Sunday to abandon his bid for re-election, following weeks of pressure from senior Democrats, and endorse vice-president Kamala Harris to succeed him.
Michael Link, Germany’s transatlantic coordinator, who is a member of the crisis group, says the move is a potential game-changer. “It reopens the race for the presidency and injects a fundamentally different dynamic into the election campaign,” he adds.
America-first economic policy could wreak huge damage on the German export-driven economy
Yet many in Germany wonder how much impact Biden’s withdrawal will have on the contest, given the way polls have been moving in recent weeks. As a result, they are continuing to prepare for a Trump victory — a prospect that inspires deep unease in Berlin.
Germany is bracing itself for the return of a president with an even more unashamedly protectionist, America-first economic policy than during his first term, including a threat to impose a 10 percent tariff on all imports, a move that could wreak huge damage on the German export-driven economy.
The anxiety intensified last week when Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate — an economic nationalist who is deeply skeptical of globalization, NATO, and US support for Ukraine.
“He has the same contempt for Germany and the EU as Trump does . . . but is even more isolationist than he is,” says Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for Germany’s governing Social Democrats (SPD). “He’s also more radical than Trump in his desire to suspend all further US military aid to Ukraine.”
Germany is already increasingly alone in the world. To the east, it faces a revisionist and expansionist Russia which could, officials in Berlin say, attack a Nato member state within a decade. Its western neighbour and closest ally France is mired in political uncertainty after snap elections yielded a hung parliament that has weakened President Emmanuel Macron.
Germany may need to reassess its political and strategic alignments
Germany’s export-driven economy is highly sensitive to changes in international trade policies. The proposed 10 percent tariff on all imports by a potential Trump administration could severely impact German businesses, particularly the automotive and manufacturing sectors which are heavily reliant on exports to the US.
Moreover, Trump's protectionist stance could lead to a broader shift in international trade dynamics, affecting Germany's trade relationships not only with the US but also with other key global markets. This could result in decreased demand for German products, leading to potential job losses and economic downturns.
On the security front, Germany's reliance on NATO and the US for defense is a critical concern. Trump's previous term saw a significant strain in NATO relations, with criticisms of member countries not contributing enough to defense spending. A second term could see further isolationist policies, potentially weakening NATO and leaving Germany more vulnerable to threats from Russia.
Domestically, Germany may need to reassess its political and strategic alignments. The potential reduction in US military support for Ukraine, coupled with an isolationist US foreign policy, could force Germany to take a more active role in European defense. This might involve increased military spending and greater collaboration with other European nations to ensure regional security.
Germany might seek to strengthen its ties with other global powers such as China and India
Additionally, Germany might seek to strengthen its ties with other global powers such as China and India to mitigate the economic fallout from strained US relations. However, this could be a delicate balancing act, given the complexities of global geopolitics and the need to maintain a unified stance within the European Union.
The prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House is causing significant anxiety in Berlin. The potential economic and security ramifications are prompting German officials to prepare for a range of scenarios. As the US presidential election approaches, Germany will need to navigate these uncertainties carefully, balancing its economic interests with the need to maintain strong international alliances and regional security.
